Quiz: Module 7, Lesson 3 - The World in 2031: Projecting Long-Term Societal Transformation

Instructions: Answer the following questions based on the lecture notes for M7, L3.

Part 1: Multiple Choice

1. What is the primary purpose of long-range forecasting (10+ years out)? a) To make precise, accurate predictions about the future. b) To explore the implications of current trends and inspire radical innovation. c) To focus only on short-term, guaranteed outcomes. d) To create detailed financial models for the next decade.

2. The practice of creating artifacts, products, or services that would exist in a particular future scenario to provoke thought and discussion is known as: a) Science Fiction b) Historical Analysis c) Speculative Design d) Product Management

3. What is "Design Fiction"? a) A technical manual for a future product. b) A fictional narrative that tells a story about how people would live with and interact with speculative artifacts. c) A legal document outlining the rules of a future society. d) A marketing plan for a product that doesn't exist yet.

Part 2: Short Answer

4. Beyond just inspiring innovation, name two other strategic benefits of using long-term forecasts and speculative design.

Answer Key

1. b) To explore the implications of current trends and inspire radical innovation. 2. c) Speculative Design. 3. b) A fictional narrative that tells a story about how people would live with and interact with speculative artifacts. 4. (Sample Answer): Two other strategic benefits are: 1) Guiding Long-Term Strategy: By understanding potential societal trajectories, leaders can make more robust decisions today, identify new markets, and build more resilient business models. 2) Identifying Ethical Dilemmas: Speculative design can act as an early warning system, helping us foresee potential negative consequences or ethical issues of a new technology before it becomes a real-world problem, allowing for more responsible design.