Project Brief: The Future Scenarios Brief

Module: 2: The Strategist's Toolkit: Seeing the Future with Foresight & Systems Thinking Lesson: 1: Navigating Uncertainty: Mastering the Discipline of Strategic Foresight

1. Objective

Your objective is to apply the discipline of Strategic Foresight to a real-world, volatile industry. You will move beyond theory to produce a concise executive brief that uses the CIFS principles and the Cone of Plausibility to outline three distinct, plausible future scenarios for the year 2030. This project will equip a hypothetical leadership team to prepare for multiple outcomes, demonstrating your value as a strategic thinker.

2. The Challenge

Choose one of the following volatile industries as the focus for your analysis:

• The News & Media Industry
• The Higher Education Industry
• The Automotive Industry

These industries are all facing immense uncertainty due to technological, social, and economic pressures. Your task is to cut through the noise and provide a clear-sighted view of the plausible futures they face.

3. Your Task

You are to produce a concise executive brief (no more than 1000 words) that outlines three distinct, plausible future scenarios for your chosen industry in the year 2030.

This is not a prediction. It is an exercise in structured imagination. You must use the principles of foresight to develop scenarios that are not just creative, but are grounded in the real driving forces and uncertainties facing the industry today. Leverage insights from the FERMA NEXT Report on emerging risks to inform your understanding of critical uncertainties.

4. Key Requirements

Your brief must be structured as follows:

1. Executive Summary: Start with a powerful opening paragraph that explains why scenario planning is critical for the chosen industry at this moment.

2. Identifying the Critical Uncertainties:

   • Identify the top two most critical and uncertain forces that will shape the future of your chosen industry. These should be factors where the outcome is not predetermined (e.g., "the pace of AI adoption" or "the future of government regulation").
   • Briefly explain why these two factors are the most important to consider.

3. Three Plausible Scenarios for 2030:

   • Based on the interplay of your two critical uncertainties, develop three distinct and plausible scenarios. Give each scenario a memorable, descriptive name. For each scenario, you must describe:
     • Scenario 1: A "Probable" Future. What happens if the current trends continue in a linear, predictable way? What does the industry look like in 2030?
     • Scenario 2: A "Plausible Disruption" Future. What happens if one of your critical uncertainties plays out in a disruptive or unexpected way? How does this transform the industry?
     • Scenario 3: A "Radical Transformation" Future. What happens if both of your critical uncertainties evolve in surprising ways? Paint a picture of a radically different, yet still plausible, industry landscape.

4. Strategic Implications & Recommendations:

   • For each of the three scenarios, briefly outline one key strategic implication for a company in that industry. What is the single most important thing a leader should be thinking about or doing today to prepare for that future?

5. Format and Deliverable

• Format: A well-structured Markdown document.
• Length: Approximately 800-1000 words.
• Deliverable: A single .md file named Future_Scenarios_Brief.md.

7. Tips for Success

• Embrace Plausibility, Not Prediction: Remember, you are not trying to guess the future. You are exploring a range of plausible futures. This frees you from the pressure of being "right."
• Make Scenarios Distinct: Ensure your three scenarios are genuinely different from each other. They should represent meaningful divergences based on your critical uncertainties.
• Tell a Story: Even though this is an executive brief, make your scenarios vivid and engaging. Help the reader visualize what life in that future might be like.
• Focus on Actionable Insights: The "so what?" is crucial. Ensure your strategic implications are concrete and directly address how a company can prepare for each future.

6. Evaluation Criteria

Your brief will be evaluated on the following criteria:

• Foresight Acumen (40%):
  • How well did you identify the critical uncertainties relevant to your chosen industry?
  • Are your three scenarios truly distinct, plausible, and insightful, moving beyond mere predictions?
  • Do your scenarios effectively utilize the principles of the Cone of Plausibility?
• Strategic Thinking (40%):
  • Are your strategic implications sharp, actionable, and directly derived from each scenario?
  • Do they logically follow from the future worlds you've described?
  • Do they demonstrate an understanding of adaptive leadership?
• Clarity and Communication (20%):
  • Is the brief well-written, clearly structured, and persuasive?
  • Is it free of unnecessary jargon and easy for a busy executive to digest?
  • Does it effectively convey the value of foresight?