Quiz: Module 2, Lesson 1 - The Art & Science of Seeing the Future

Instructions: Answer the following questions based on the lecture notes and reading summary for M2, L1.

Part 1: Multiple Choice

1. What is the primary goal of Strategic Foresight? a) To accurately predict the one single future that will happen. b) To prepare organizations for a range of plausible futures. c) To prevent any and all risks from occurring. d) To focus only on the most probable and obvious future.

2. In the "Cone of Plausibility," which category of futures do foresight practitioners spend most of their time exploring? a) Probable Futures b) Plausible Futures c) Possible Futures d) Preferable Futures

3. According to the FERMA NEXT report, many of today's biggest challenges (like geopolitical shifts) were once what? a) Unavoidable crises b) Complete unknowns c) Weak signals that could have been identified earlier d) Issues that only affected a few small companies

Part 2: Short Answer

4. One of the 10 Principles of Foresight is that "Foresight is about being open to challenging information." Why is this principle often so difficult for large, successful organizations to put into practice?

Answer Key

1. b) To prepare organizations for a range of plausible futures. 2. b) Plausible Futures. 3. c) Weak signals that could have been identified earlier. 4. (Sample Answer): Large, successful organizations often find this principle difficult because their very success was built on a specific model or view of the world. Challenging information represents a threat to that established, profitable model. There is often institutional inertia, a culture that rewards executing the current plan, and a fear of disrupting a successful formula. Admitting that their core assumptions might be wrong can be perceived as a weakness or a risk to short-term performance, making it hard to embrace information that contradicts the status quo.